Sunday, May 20, 2012

Obama's Electoral Lock About To Be Picked?

A hopeful sign.

Many models show President Obama with a likely base of 252 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. This includes the West coast, all the states northeast of Maryland except for New Hampshire, and seven other states in the Great Lakes region (Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota) the west (Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada) plus Hawaii. The Republican base in the South and West is around 191. This leaves 95 tossup electoral votes of which Mr. Obama needs only 18.
Tough numbers to overcome indeed, still doable with the economy flat lining under Obama's failed recovery.
However, those 18 will be hard to get. Either Ohio or Florida alone would push Mr. Obama over the top, but neither state is likely to go Democratic given current trends. North Carolina, worth 15 votes, was initially supposed to play a key role in the Obama strategy. If the Tar Heel State could be kept in the Democratic column, it was thought that victory would be practically impossible for the Republicans. The Democratic National Convention was set in Charlotte for this reason.
The ship may spring a leak and start sinking in North Carolina. North Carolina looks bad for Barry.
All eyes shifting to Pennsylvania? Get your popcorn.

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